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When it comes to predicting the future of the Internet and how it will continue to redefine how we live our lives, there is no better person to take a pass at it than Howard Charney. He is currently a senior vice president at
Cisco
Systems, reporting directly to John Chambers. He founded Grand Junction (acquired by Cisco). He is also credited for being the inventor of Fast Ethernet. He also co-founded 3Com Corporation. Now is primary responsibility is communicating Cisco's strategy and vision and advising governments and businesses on how the Internet can help their organizations become more productive and build a competitive advantage.
In a fascinating speech that I attended, Charney make some compelling arguments why we have barely scratched the surface when it comes to the power of Internet and the potential for conducting business online.
Such forecasts were all over the place during the early 90s and everyone believed them. However, we soon learned that human behavior is slow to change. We also found out that unless all the levers move in unison the system may not work. So companies that were built on the premise that broadband will be omnipresent within a matter of years simply could not survive when that did not happen.
What Charney is arguing, using historical data, is that every 40-50 years there is a cycle of change driven primarily by technology. It starts with initial exuberance, and then there is dip, followed by a long, sustained period of growth. As everyone will agree, we are now just coming out of that dip. In his opinion, we should therefore see about 25-35 years of steady growth and prosperity worldwide. If what is happening in countries like India (that would not be able to participate in the global tech revolution without the Internet and technology) is true, then I agree with Charney that we have seen nothing yet.
What does it mean for you?
- Do not ignore the power of "e." You must stay on top of technology trends to make sure that you can stay ahead of the competition by incorporating whatever will give you a competitive edge.
- While the Internet may be entering a level of maturity in some developed countries, the vast majority of people in the world have not even touched it.
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